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02/3 2011

DL518: Two Best Things About The Super Bowl? Food And Gambling.

Posted by Dan Levy.

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This is a two-part show, focusing on the two best things (other than maybe the commercials and the actual football) that are associated with the Super Bowl: food and gambling.

FOOD

First, we talk with Sarah Sprague about her amazing annual series 28 Days of Super Bowl Recipes. We talk about how important good food is for a good Super Bowl party and we go over some of her favorite recipes in this year’s edition. Like, for example, Coffee Glazed Pepper Chicken Drumsticks or Sriracha Fried Pickles (!!!).

We talk about how she can make anything into a hot dip and talk about how delicious Spicy Peanut Butter Honey Chicken Tenders must be. I mean SERIOUSLY. Read those words together. Spicy. Peanut Butter. Honey. Chicken. TENDERS. All delicious on their own, combined they make create the greatest Super Bowl snack ever devised. EVER. DEVISED.

So there’s more of that. If your mouth doesn’t water at the end of this segment, you hate football…or food. Oh, and make sure to check out Sarah’s site (through the above links) because she takes you step-by-step through the recipes, with photos and funny commentary from start to delicious finish.

GAMBLING

Next we talk with Paul Bessire from PredictionMachine.com about his Super Bowl pick. So you know Paul was on before the playoffs started and loved Green Bay. That hasn’t changed heading into the Super Bowl as his math has the Packers winning over 60% of the 50,000 contests he’s run.

That’s, as we say in the business, a prohibitive favorite. He also has the Packers covering the spread at a 55.7% rate and has the under — this game is screaming the under — at 58.9%.

We talk about my method of throwing darts and how it compares to his actual science. Turns out, we have almost the exact same prediction for the final score which makes me either a math genius or a total bullshitter who got lucky that his guess is close to an actual scientific prediction.

We talk about who might win the MVP and why the favorite to win the award isn’t the favorite to BET on, in that the Vegas odds aren’t in your favor to be on the favorite. That’s very important, as Paul always points out with certain bets. His numbers give you the most likely outcome but if his percentages aren’t a smart bet (he predicts an MVP candidate 12% of the time but the odds are 7/5) it’s not a smart play.

We go over some more prop bets — can you calculate the probability of the coin toss? — and wonder if people can take action on some of the non-game bets to make a little Super Bowl bank. For example, there’s a bet of whether or not Christina Aguilera will wear a cowboy hat. What if her stylist threw a few grand on that?

And what about media types. What if Joe Buck saw the line on mentioning a potential lockout and wanted to mess with the gamblers (or had someone throw some money on it). More possible, what if the person in charge of the USA Today’s Monday layout saw the payouts on who will be on the cover with the trophy and wanted to squirrel away a little scratch? Paul and I have some fun wildly speculating about these things.

We also talk about some of the in-game prop bets and how much fun they can be to play.

It’s a good Super Bowl chat, and I’m certain something in there can help you with your wagers, if so inclined.

This is a must listen-to show for any Super Bowl Fan.

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Posted on February 3, 2011 at 8:35AM

 

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