Posted in Media
0 comments
08/30 2010

Mitch Williams Says Yanks Won’t Make Playoffs: Crazyman or Soothsayer?

Posted by Dan Levy.

Mitch Williams was on the Dan Patrick radio show today to talk about Stephen Strasburg and the rest of the news in baseball. One such news item that was pulled out of the conversation and sent to their blog by Andrew Perloff was this nugget about the American League east race:

Dan asked Williams his favorite in the AL East. Williams will go with Tampa, because of all the arms the Rays have. And he thinks the Yankees won’t even make the playoffs. “Boston has more pitching. Tampa has more pitching. And everyone knows in September and October, pitching wins,” Williams said.

The Yankees and Rays are currently tied at the top of the AL East, with the loser of that division slated right now for the Wild Card. The next closest team in the Wild Card race is the Red Sox at 6.5 games out with the White Sox behind them at 10 games and the A’s behind them at 14.5 games. In essence, the Red Sox are the only team left with a shot to catch the Yankees or Rays for the Wild Card. It’s interesting to read the Williams thinks the Yankees — the defending World Series champions — will be the team on the outside looking in come playoff time.

Is this just a pundit riffing on a national radio show? It could be, but Williams is usually much more reasoned than that. He’s not the type of analyst who will just say things without thought, logic and solid points to back up his claims. He may be wrong, but he’s rarely inflammatory for the sake of making headlines.

So, let’s take a look at his logic: Can the Red Sox overtake the Yankees?

The Yankees have 32 games to play (the Red Sox have 31) and the Yanks are seven up in the loss column. Here’s a look at their schedules:

• The Yankees have 25 division games remaining, with six coming against the Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox (home and away) and seven against the Rays (four at home).

• The Red Sox have just 18 division games remaining, with six coming against the Orioles and Yankees (home and away) and three each against the Blue Jays and Rays (all at home).

• The Yankees out-of-division opponents are three at the Rangers and four at home to the A’s.

• The Red Sox out-of-division opponents are seven against the White Sox (three at home), three at the A’s and three at the Mariners.

Clearly the Yankees have the tougher schedule with seven games against the Rays to Boston’s seven against the White Sox. Sure, the White Sox are still in a division race (though still 4.5 games out which could change things by the time the Red Sox play them in the second-to-last series of the season). While both teams play the A’s (Yankees at home) the Yankees’ other series is at the Rangers while the Red Sox play at Seattle.

Of course the Yankees and Red Sox play each other six times in the last nine games (ten games for Boston) so that alone could be enough for Williams’ claim to come to fruition. It’s hard to imagine, though, that the Yankees would let Boston take six games from them in the last week of the season. Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that the Red Sox win both series — a hypothetical that would certainly need to happen if the Red Sox have any chance at catching New York. That would put the Red Sox just 4.5 back of the Yankees.

If you assume the same record in common games (a big assumption but it’s three against the Jays and Rays, with six against the Orioles so it’s hard not to assume) that means the Red Sox will have to make up 4.5 games in just 13 contests. If the Yankees go .500 in their games (14 games including the four against the A’s and Rays, three each against the Blue Jays and Rangers) it means the Sox will have to go 11-2 in their games just to force a playoff.

Let’s step back and figure the Red Sox take five-of-six from the Yankees in their remaining games. If you still assume the same records against common opponents, and the Yankees going 7-7 in their other games, the Red Sox would still need to go 9-4 against in three each against the A’s, Mariners and seven against the White Sox. Of those 13 games, ten are on the road. And that would also force a tie in the Wild Card race.

It’s obviously a lot to assume, but it sure seems like the only way Boston has a chance to pass New York is to assume the Yankees will do worse against than Boston against their common opponents, worse in their other remaining games AND Boston takes 5-6 of the remaining contests between the two. It could happen, as the Red Sox have a weaker schedule in their favor and, per Williams, better pitching (for what it’s worth the Yankees have a 3.92 team ERA to Boston’s 4.14 though 102 ERA+ to Boston’s 106 ).

It’s indeed a lot to assume. And a lot to bet on.

Share
Posted on August 30, 2010 at 12:40PM

 

USER COMMENTS

Track comments via RSS 2.0 feed. Feel free to post the comment, or trackback from your web site.

Currently there are no comments related to article "Mitch Williams Says Yanks Won’t Make Playoffs: Crazyman or Soothsayer?".